Norwalk, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

953
FXUS61 KOKX 061746
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
146 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Coldest night of the season thus far coming up for tonight.
Frost, isolated freezing temperatures for late tonight into
early Wednesday morning for parts of the region.

2) Temperatures rebound with air mass moderation Wednesday
into Thursday. Above normal temperatures forecast Thursday.

3) Mainly dry conditions through the upcoming weekend.
Next chance of rain Sunday night into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Tonight, the high pressure center moves in. Weakening pressure
gradient with gusts diminishing this afternoon and winds
becoming calm tonight. Mostly clear sky conditions will help
promote radiational cooling to an already cooler than normal
air mass.

Took the blend of MET and MAV MOS guidance for lows tonight with
some manual adjustments as the NBM itself appeared to be way
too warm. The areal size of forecast min temperatures below
freezing is relatively small and isolated. With the temperatures
nearly falling to the dewpoint along with the calm winds, frost
is expected to form, especially across the interior parts of
the region and to a smaller extent across parts of Eastern
Suffolk County NY. More than half of the zones of Orange NY,
Putnam NY, and interior Southern CT have areas of frost forecast
for late tonight into early Wednesday and for these zones,
there is a frost advisory in effect from 11PM this evening until
9 AM Wednesday. Elsewhere and outside of the Pine Barrens of
Long Island, the range of lows is more in the 36-45 degree
range with NYC Metro more in the 45-50 degree range.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
With the movement of high pressure to more out into the Atlantic
Wednesday into Wednesday night, the winds and circulation
pattern changes to bring more SW winds. This will advect in a
warmer air mass. Forecast temperatures exhibit quite the
rebound as a result. Wednesday`s highs back to near normal,
mostly mid 60s to near 70 and lows Wednesday night mostly back
into the 50s as the SW winds stay up in the boundary layer. The
warm air advection continues Thursday with highs that day more
into the 70s with mid to upper 70s across western parts of the
region (NE NJ, NYC, Lower Hudson Valley) away from the
relatively cooler marine air.

In general thereafter, forecast temperatures do not deviate
much from seasonal normals. Highs mostly in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Lows at night stay in the 40s and 50s.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Extended dry conditions are forecast through the rest of the
work week and into much of the weekend. A cold front moves
across Thursday night but does not have much moisture with it
and this is expected move through dry. Sunday night into early
next week is when there is the next chance of rain and this is
from a low pressure system and associated moisture approaching
from the south and west. Still a lot of uncertainty with this
and probability for rain is between 20-40 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR as high pressure to the west builds over the area tonight,
then passes east daytime Wed.

NW winds around or just over 10 kt (with some leftover gusts
15-20 kt before 20Z) should diminish this evening and become
light/vrb. SW flow 5-10 kt expected after 13Z-15Z Wed.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday afternoon and night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: VFR daytime. Chance of rain with MVFR cond at
night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly below SCA conditions expected into this weekend. There is
potential for some SCA level conditions on the ocean Thu into
Thu night.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday
     for CTZ005>008.
NY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday
     for NYZ067-068.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JM